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五粮液早报:这次“既分高下,也决生死”!(五粮液早报:这一战,不止比高下,更关生死!)

enum

Analyzing user's message

The user has sent a Chinese message referring to a Wuliangye morning report, possibly asking for commentary or an analysis. Their message seems like a headline about the competition between Chinese liquor companies. They might be looking for an article or analysis based on the title regarding Wuliangye’s market strategies, price wars, or upcoming sales peaks. Since it’s dated, I need to avoid claiming real-time news without browsing.Clarifying user request

Our network sandbox parameters aren't explicitly defined, but I can conduct analysis without real-time browsing. I suspect the user is looking for a write-up. Since the task is somewhat ambiguous, I should ask a clarifying question. I could propose: Do you want a market analysis and investment brief for Wuliangye? I can offer a structured approach including key points like sales, pricing, inventory, competition with Moutai, and relevant seasonal insights leading into the Chinese New Year 2026.Creating a morning brief template

![kin](/assets/images/AE57E7B.jpg)

I suspect the user's topic relates to the price system "地板价/成交价," which could be about ex-factory prices and destocking strategies. I can design a morning brief template that includes overnight news, market perspectives, core logic around Feitian Moutai prices, Wuliangye's classic offerings, and competition from other brands like Jiangsu Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao. Since there's no specific request, I could prepare a draft for internal use, ensuring we present the content as analysis rather than real-time news, using approximate values when necessary.Preparing an industry morning brief

I think it's better to present price ranges and suggest that the user verify information through channel checks. I could ask if they want me to write an industry/company morning brief based on the title they've provided, with specifics on length and style. However, since asking isn't always necessary, I’ll aim to create a concise "早报" with sections in Chinese. The brief would focus on the baijiu sector around the Chinese New Year, discussing sub-high-end brands and market trends, while keeping it simple and clean.Drafting without numbers

I think we should be cautious about including financial advice disclaimers, but it's fine to note "非投资建议" for clarity. Keeping approximate numbers might be useful, but perhaps we should focus on frameworks instead, like prices to monitor or inventory turnover days. Using placeholders for the user to fill in could work well. I’ll draft a brief without complex charts or coding, aiming to maintain simplicity while still providing valuable guidance.

给你一版可直接对外发送的“早报”草稿,按你给的题目写,聚焦春节旺季的关键胜负点。需要更激进/更稳健的版本或加上你们自有渠道数据,我再细化。


五粮液早报:这次“既分高下,也决生死”!

ginv

一句话结论

  • 春节旺季将决定高端与次高端的价格秩序与渠道信心,强者定价权强化、弱者被动去库存;本轮较量既比高低,也关生死。
  • 对五粮液:看“价格红线、动销节奏、库存周转”三件事,守住批价与价差即守住全年节奏。

今日三大要点

  • 价格秩序:关注经典五粮液/普五52°批价与终端成交差,是否稳定在经销商有利可为的价差带;任何破位都会放大渠道风险偏好变化。
  • 动销强度:宴席与礼赠场景恢复度是决定性变量;看动销出库比、回款节奏是否匹配提货节奏,避免“发货强、动销弱”的错配。
  • 社会库存:经销商可识别库存天数与结构(高/低价位带占比);健康区间应使春节后2–4周内可去化,不挤压至二季度。

核心判断与逻辑

  • 结构化分化加剧:高端凭品牌心智与稀缺性巩固定价权;次高端/次高端以下若无强场景与渠道组织力,价格战只会换来更长的去库周期。
  • 今年旺季的“决生死”在于现金流:谁能以正循环完成“回款—提货—动销—复购”,谁就拿到全年先手;反之则被动缩表、让价求量。
  • 五粮液的胜负手:稳批价、控投放、保渠道利润。坚决不做短期冲量换价权的事,把“价差带”让给渠道去转化为动销。

五粮液跟踪清单(旺季窗口必看)

  • 价格红线:经典/普五主力规格批价、终端成交、渠道毛利区间是否稳定;节点促销是否“秒杀价权”。
  • 节奏管理:厂方配额与返利规则是否绑定真实动销;区域配比是否向高动销、强执行团队倾斜。
  • 场景抓手:宴席、团购、礼赠三类客群的包销/定制/联动活动转化率;商超/流通与团购的结构占比是否优化。
  • 库存健康:核心省区经销商周转(目标≤1个旺季周期内可去化)、渠道串货与跨区价差监测预警。
  • 传播与陈列:春节前两周的强曝光与强占位是否拉满,以减少价格敏感期的博弈空间。

交易与经营建议(供内部参考)

  • 经营侧:宁可少、不可乱;执行“以销定产/配、以利定量”,严格控制非常规促销与跨区流动。
  • 渠道侧:保障核心经销商现金流与利润感知,优化返利兑现速度;以差异化产品/礼盒锁定团购客户。
  • 品牌侧:放大“高端刚需+品牌心智”传播,弱化“价格比较”,用场景和社交背书抵消价格战的噪音。

风险与观察点

  • 需求扰动:宏观消费波动导致礼赠/宴席不及预期。
  • 价格战外溢:次高端无序竞争向上扰动价差带。
  • ![ff](/assets/images/92D51F6B.png)
  • 渠道健康:个别区域库存、现金流承压引发被动让利与负反馈。

今日行动项(落地表)

  • 拉取省区一线价格快报与动销出库比,形成日更看板(批价/成交/回款/库存天数/串货预警)。
  • 对前20大经销商逐一复核库存结构与现金流压力,必要时定向护盘。
  • 宴席与团购专项复盘:锁单率、复购率、单场ROI,及时加码有效动作、止损低效动作。

备注

  • 本早报为策略与经营框架,非投资建议;价格与库存数据请以当日渠道核验为准。
  • 若你提供最新的批价/动销/库存表,我可以据此生成定量版“旺季决策面板”(阈值+红黄绿灯)。